California’s June primary could yield unusually scary results for Democrats – By Eric Ting & Alec Regimbal (SFGATE) / May 23, 2022
Poll after poll and indicator after indicator show that 2022 is likely to be a “red wave” election year favorable to Republican candidates.
Analysts have struggled to precisely define the term “wave year,” but generally agree on one important facet: Such a year typically goes poorly for one party across several states. We’re already seeing evidence of a “red wave” through Republican turnout numbers in primary elections across the election this spring. What should we expect in California’s June 7 primary?
Below is a chart showing the total number of votes cast for Democratic and Republican House of Representatives candidates across the state of California in the state’s last eight primary elections. In every year except 2020, the primary election was held in June (in 2020, the statewide primary moved up to March 2020 to coincide with the presidential primary). In 2012, California moved from holding party-based primaries to the current top-two system, so the addition of “no party preference” candidates to the ballot resulted in (slightly) more votes going to candidates not affiliated with either of the two major parties. All figures come from the California Secretary of State’s office.
