No Longer Gun Shy: Young voters concerned about gun deaths are registering to vote in record numbers. – By Susan Milligan (usnews.com) / July 27 2018
Participants attend the March for Our Lives rally to demand stricter gun control laws in Washington, D.C. on March 24, 2018.
(Brett Ziegler for USN&WR)
Candidates used to be able to rely on two axioms: young people don’t vote, and gun control is not a winning issue for Democrats in competitive races. But a surge of political activism among youth – combined with student demands for more gun safety laws – has thrown both presumptions out the window.
In Colorado – a state which five years ago ousted two state senators in a recall election after they pushed through gun control legislation – GOP congressional incumbent Mike Coffman, who has an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association, is under political fire for his pro-gun stance. The district, long considered safely red, is now a toss-up race, according to leading nonpartisan political forecasters. Democrat Jason Crow, who made guns the first issue ad of his campaign, could become the first Democrat ever to represent the district, which was created in 1983.
In Florida, a pro-gun rights GOP House incumbent, also with an “A” NRA rating, is facing a tough re-election campaign against a Democratic primary candidate who appeared at a gun control rally with former Rep. Gabby Giffords, whose congressional career was ended after she was shot in the head while meeting with constituents in 2011. Instead of blasting Democrat David Shapiro for calling for gun control in a state named the 12th most gun owner-friendly in the nation last year by Guns & Ammo magazine, Republican Vern Buchanan is running an ad criticizing Shapiro for making personal financial investments in guns and ammunition companies.
And in Ohio, an Aug. 7 special election for a congressional seat is also considered a toss-up – despite the district’s longtime GOP leanings and the unabashed call by the Democrat, Danny O’Connor, for “red flag” laws refusing firearms to dangerous individuals. He’s hoping to upset his GOP opponent, the NRA “A”-rated state Sen. Troy Balderson.
What’s behind the agitation for tighter gun laws? It’s young people, who are criss-crossing the country to call attention to the issue, call out lawmakers who reject them, and call on others in their generation to vote. And while candidates in the past could feel safe knowing that youth would not make a strong showing at the ballot box, current data suggests those running for office should be somewhat – if not very – afraid.
“I think we’re going to see more young voters this year than we’ve seen in a number of years,” in large part because of the activism spurred by the February school shooting in Parkland, Florida which left 17 dead, says Darrel M. West, vice president and director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution. “For the first time in a long time, they understand politics matter.”
Turnout among young voters has historically been lower than that of other generations – a trend which in recent decades has hurt Democrats, who generally have polled higher than Republicans among 18-29-year-olds. Turnout for that group in the 2016 elections was 43 percent (compared to 57 percent for 30-44-year-olds; 66 percent of 45-59-year-olds, and 71 percent for 60-plusers), according to an analysis of voter data by the United States Elections Project. In the last midterm election (when turnout tends to drop for every age group) just 16 percent of 18-29-year-olds cast ballots, down substantially from the one in five who showed up at the ballot box in the 2010 midterms.
But youth voter registration has surged since the Parkland shooting, according to an analysis by the consulting group TargetSmart. Among 39 states where data is available, voter registration by 18-29-year-olds went up an average 2.2 percent, the group found. In Pennsylvania, which has a race for governor and House and Senate races that could determine which party controls each chamber next year, youth registration rose 16.1 percent. In Florida, the hike was eight percent; in Colorado, 2.3 percent, and in Ohio, the rise was six percent.
“I absolutely think 2018 is going to be different,” both in terms of young voter participation and the impact of the gun issue, says Isabelle James, political director for Giffords, a gun-safety group founded by the former congresswoman. “Young people are engaged at an unprecedented level, and it started before Parkland,” she says.
James points to Virginia, which last year nearly flipped the once-heavily GOP House of Delegates blue, while easily electing as governor a Democrat, Ralph Northam, who ran on a gun safety platform. After an aggressive voter registration and turnout campaign, activists got a 34 percent turnout among young voters – nearly 10 points higher than in 2009, the last gubernatorial year. In the 2017 race, 18-29-year-olds went for Northam by more than a two-to-one margin, according to exit polls.
In Ohio next month, youth activism could provide the margin for an upset victory, Buckeye State political experts say. “Young people haven’t voted in the past, and guns have not been a successful issue for Democrats,” says Herb Asher, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University. But this year, he says, there’s been enough movement on both issues to make the Ohio special election – and others around the nation – a lot more competitive.
“Is it going to increase youth turnout a lot? No. But if you can get youth turnout from 15-20 [percent] to 30, can that change a lot of elections for state legislature and Congress? Absolutely,” Asher adds.
Embracing gun control or gun regulation can be especially helpful in a year when voter enthusiasm matters, adds David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron. “Here’s the thing – people who are big second amendment rights people aren’t voting for Democrats, anyway,” but gun control advocates might be discouraged by a candidate who seems to avoid the issue entirely, Cohen says. “You have to motivate the base. This is going to be a base election.”
NextGen America, a group founded by liberal activist Tom Steyer, is mounting what spokeswoman Olivia Bercow describes as “the largest youth voter effort in American history,” spending $33 million to register and mobilize young voters in 11 states. The group (which spearheaded the effort in Virginia last year) plans to visit 300 college campuses, focusing on community college campuses, with the main goal of flipping control of the House to the Democrats, Bercow says. So far, the group has registered 80,000 people under 40, she adds.
The NRA remains a powerful force, both in its lobbying efforts and involvement (through its PAC) in campaigns and races. Gun rights groups spent more than $10 million lobbying last year, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics compared to less than $2 million spent by gun control groups. Pro-gun groups contributed nearly $6 million to candidates in 2016 (98 percent of which went to Republicans), compared to less than $2 million contributed by gun control groups (98 percent of which went to Democrats). The disparity is narrower for the 2018 election cycle, with gun rights groups contributing $1.8 million to candidates so far, compared to about $1.4 million by gun control organizations.
The NRA and the National Republican Congressional Committee did not respond to interview requests.
The NRA has been very successful in the past, helping to defeat pro-gun control Democrats or thwarting legislation on Capitol Hill and in state legislatures to limit gun ownership or the types of guns allowed to be sold. But the Parkland shooting – along with a voter force that appears to be flexing its young muscles – is changing that, West says.
“Democrats are no longer running from the issue of gun violence. I think there have been enough bad incidents to make it possible for them to discuss that topic again,” West says. In suburban districts especially – the ones where Democrats hope to cobble together enough wins for a House majority – the issue may work for Democrats, he says.
John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics, says Democrats need to capitalize on the surge in youth participation – and deliver.
“I think that students have done their job, which is to connect the dots between frustration and voting,” says Della Volpe, who directs a twice-yearly, comprehensive poll of 18-29-year-olds. “Obviously, they’ve registered people at a pretty close to record rate. That’s only part one. Part two is that Democrats need to take that foundation and build something on top of it, showing why, individually, they can be trusted and basically finish the job. That’s the big question for me.”
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2018-07-27/gun-deaths-are-driving-the-young-to-vote
