Will Marijuana Be Legalized In The US In 2020? Here Are The Reasons Why It Won’t – By Sean Williams (IB Times) / Dec 14 2019
Even though this hasn’t exactly been a banner year for marijuana stocks, there’s little denying the growth that legal cannabis can offer over the next decade. Between 2014 and 2018, we witnessed legal marijuana sales more than triple around the globe to $10.9 billion, and we’re liable to see sales increase fivefold to 18-fold by 2030, if Wall Street’s various estimates prove accurate.
Yet, one aspect of the cannabis industry that continues to be stuck in neutral is the idea of legalization at the federal level in the United States. Despite 66% of Americans favoring the legalization of marijuana in an October 2019 Gallup poll (this ties last year’s all-time high), and 33 states having legalized medical pot in some capacity since 1996, I’d affix zero chance of the federal government changing its tune on marijuana in 2020. Here are five reasons consumers and investors should be looking toward 2021 (or beyond) for any chance of cannabis reform in the United States.
1. Republicans control the Senate until (at least) January 2021
To begin with, it can’t be overlooked that the Senate will remain majority-controlled by Republicans until January 2021, at minimum. This is noteworthy given that surveys have consistently shown members of the GOP to have a more adverse view of cannabis than Democrats or Independents. In the aforementioned Gallup poll from October, 76% of Democrats and 68% of Independents favor the idea of a nationwide legalization, which compares to only 51% of Republicans. Although members of the GOP have softened their stance on weed over the years, the Party isn’t exactly supportive of reform.
To add to this point, when the current Congress came into session in January 2019, the average age of U.S. senators (regardless of party) was 61.8 years. Polls have shown that seniors have a more negative view of marijuana than younger adults, so this could very well add fuel to the fire as to why cannabis has no chance of reform in the Senate.
2. Mitch McConnell is Capitol Hill’s most ardent cannabis opponent
Maybe the biggest reason there’s no zero chance of marijuana reform in the U.S. in 2020 is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). With Jeff Sessions stepping down as attorney general in November 2018, it vaulted McConnell into a role he’s gladly accepted: the most ardent opponent of cannabis reform on Capitol Hill.
Put plainly, McConnell has thwarted all attempts by lawmakers to bring cannabis reform legislation or marijuana riders to the Senate floor for vote. For example, McConnell blocked an amendment in December 2018 that would have attached the States Act to a popular justice reform bill. The States Act, if passed, would have recognized that compliant transactions in legalized states aren’t “trafficking,” and would thereby have protected banks that offered financial services to pot companies in these legal states. But as long as McConnell remains Senate majority leader (presumably at least until January 2021), reform isn’t on the table in the Senate.
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