Five Years After Meltdown, Ruble Is Reborn as Trade-War Refuge – By Srinivasan Sivabalan and Áine Quinn (Bloomberg) / Dec 22 2019
(Bloomberg) — Five years ago, central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s decision to let the ruble trade freely faced a gut-wrenching test. An oil-price collapse and international sanctions had put the currency into a nosedive that even a 650 basis-point rate hike couldn’t immediately halt.
Fast-forward half a decade and the picture in Russian markets couldn’t look more different.
The government’s decision to abandon currency interventions, a cautious interest-rate policy, and tighter budget rules, means it enters 2020 with more than half a trillion dollars of reserves and one of the world’s most lucrative carry-trade currencies.
And the ruble is set to top the pack again in 2020, offering a safe haven amid concerns over the trade war between the U.S. and China, according to a Bloomberg survey of 57 global investors, strategists and traders. Analysts at HSBC Holdings Plc see the currency gaining as much as 7% from current levels, calling it a “beacon of light” in emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
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a screenshot of a video game: Dec. 16, 2014 marked the peak of ruble’s turbulence