Can the economy predict the next president? Yes, if history is any indication – By Jessica Menton (USA Today) / March 13 2020
Fears over a potential recession and plunging stock markets fueled by the coronavirus pandemic could threaten President Trump’s efforts to secure a second term.
As it turns out, the U.S. economy has an impressive track record of predicting the next president, if history is any indication.
The U.S. economy predicted the winner of 16 of the previous 18 elections where a sitting president was up for re-election, according to LPL Financial. You have to reach back to Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to find the last time the economy was wrong regarding the re-election of a president.
“Incredibly, the last 11 times there wasn’t a recession within two years of a re-election, the sitting president won,” Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, said in a note. “Compare that to the seven times there was a recession, and the incumbent president didn’t get re-elected five of those times.”
To be sure, the economy doesn’t appear to be in a recession. In fact, the U.S. economy headed into 2020 on a solid footing, driven by strong jobs growth, robust consumer spending and a firming housing market.
Continue to article: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/13/coronavirus-can-economy-predict-next-president-trump-election-2020/5030457002/
