California doctors with dubious COVID conclusions debunked – By CALmatters (LA Daily News) / April 28 2020
Health experts were quick to say the doctors’ findings were misguided and riddled with statistical errors.
They dressed in scrubs. They sounded scientific. And last week’s message from two Bakersfield doctors was exactly what many stuck-at-home Americans wanted to hear: COVID-19 is no worse than influenza, its death rates are low and we should all go back to work and school.
Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi, who own urgent care centers in the region, had called a press conference to release their conclusions about the results of 5,213 COVID-19 tests they had conducted at their centers and testing site. They claimed the results showed that the virus had spread further in the area, undetected, and thus wasn’t all that dangerous.
But public health experts were quick to debunk the doctors’ findings as misguided and riddled with statistical errors — and an example of the kind of misleading information they are forced to waste precious time disputing.
The doctors should never have assumed that the patients they tested — who came for walk-in COVID-19 tests or who sought urgent care for symptoms they experienced in the middle of a pandemic — are representative of the general population, said Dr. Carl Bergstrom, a University of Washington biologist who specializes in infectious disease modeling. He likened their extrapolations to “estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court.” And most credible studies of COVID-19 death rates in reality are far higher than the ones the doctors presented.
“They’ve used methods that are ludicrous to get results that are completely implausible,” Bergstrom said.
Still, the early media coverage went viral. A local television report on the Bakersfield doctors’ press conference garnered more than 4.3 million views on YouTube. Elon Musk, the Tesla founder who wants to reopen his Fremont manufacturing plant this week, praised the doctors to his 33 million-plus Twitter followers. Last night, the doctors got a conservative national audience for their views on Fox News, appearing on Laura Ingraham’s show.
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