The Militarization of U.S. Politics – By Aila M. Matanock and Paul Staniland (Foreign Affairs) / Oct 29 2020
How Trump’s Presidency Opened the Door to Armed Electoral Interference
Over the last four years, U.S. President Donald Trump has shown more sympathy for far-right groups, many of them armed, than any president in recent memory. At the same time, his administration has reportedly pressured law enforcement agencies to downplay the threat posed by these organizations, allowing nonstate violence to creep back into the political mainstream to a degree not seen since the 1960s and 1970s. Just last month, a group of antigovernment extremists was arrested for plotting to kidnap Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, after she defied Trump’s demand to “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” from COVID-19 restrictions. More violence could erupt ahead of next week’s presidential election, as well as in its aftermath.
Our research considers the conditions under which armed groups interfere in electoral politics, drawing on the experiences of other countries and previous periods in American history. Our comparisons show many avenues for armed participation in politics but two important ones—when political elites endorse armed groups, even tacitly, and when governments fail to marshal a consistent and unified response toward such groups. Both avenues have become increasingly active and worrisome during the Trump presidency. And both, once open, can be difficult to close off once again.
Regardless of who wins on November 3, Trump’s presidency will have opened the door to more electoral violence in the future. If the U.S. political system begins to normalize the presence of armed groups, and if law enforcement agencies fail to deter or address the problem, future political aspirants may see an electoral benefit to cultivating these organizations. Some analysts have suggested that the United States could be headed down a path toward civil war, but a far more likely scenario is sporadic, recurrent low-level political violence—instigated or enabled by mainstream political leaders—that gradually erodes the quality of American democracy.
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