Commentary: How Biden can reenergize strategic arms control – By Hans Binnendijk (Defense News) / Dec 22 2020
The incoming Biden administration will need to quickly extend the New START nuclear pact before it expires on Feb. 5. Russia has previously offered a five-year extension, consistent with the treaty’s terms. That extension will, however, be only the first step in a long process to return nuclear arms control from the brink.
The Trump administration tentatively agreed with Moscow to a one-year extension accompanied by a freeze on all nuclear warheads. But that effort faltered on verification issues. The Biden team has indicated support for an unconditional extension and appears to favor a longer time period. Given the complexities, providing negotiators the full five years would avoid setting an early deadline that might pressure Washington. The negotiators will need to wrangle with several complex interconnected issues.
Current limitations on deployed strategic warheads and launchers should be lowered. The current warhead limit of 1,550 has been met by both sides, and parity exists in this category. In new negotiations, the ceiling might be lowered to about 1,000, which is close to the number the U.S. military said in 2013 that it could accept. That would further reduce the risk to each side of a disabling first strike.
The deployed launcher limit of 700 (which includes deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and nuclear-capable bombers) might also be lowered but not too far since a small number would make attractive targets for a first strike.
