Goldman says Ukraine-Russia war could trigger US economic recession – By Megan Henney (FOX Business) / March 17, 2022
Odds of a U.S. recession have increased to 20% to 35% because of the Ukraine war, economists say
Goldman Sachs economists warned the probability of the U.S. economy plunging into a recession in the next year has risen dramatically in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The economists, led by Jan Hatzius, cut their forecast for economic growth this year to 1.75% from 2.0% and noted that such an outlook means there is a “higher risk” of about 20% to 35% that the U.S. enters a recession over the next year.
“While our baseline forecast assumes that further service sector reopening and spending from excess savings will keep real GDP growth positive in the coming quarters, uncertainty around the outlook is higher than normal,” they wrote in the Thursday analyst note. “We view the risks of a recession as broadly in line with the 20-35% odds currently implied by models based on the slope of the yield curve.”
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