Advantage Republicans: GOP only needs six toss-up seats for House control, analyst finds – By Cami Mondeaux (Washington Examiner) / Sept 21, 2022
Republicans only need to win six of the 31 toss-up House elections in order to win control of the lower chamber in November, according to a report from a top election analyst.
At least 212 House seats are likely to lean Republican, with about 192 seats leaning Democratic, according to new ratings from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. That leaves about 31 toss-up seats in the midterm elections, with Republicans only needing to nab six of them to win House control.
The updated numbers come as Republicans’ projected seat lead in the House has shrunk in recent months, falling from an estimated 230 seats in July to just 226 at the end of August, according to an analysis from CBS News. This shift in projections is likely due to a number of reasons, including the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which has helped Democrats motivate their voter base as well as some far-right candidates winning GOP primaries that may risk a general election win.
Although many projections, including those from the Cook Political Report, show a reduction in the number of House seats Republicans are expected to win, the most recent ratings show the GOP need only make small gains to gain control of the chamber.
