Against odds, Tillerson hangs on — for now – By Nahal Toosi (politico.com) / Jan 24 2018
Rex Tillerson was supposed to quit or be fired by July. Or was it October? Definitely by the end of 2017, some predicted. One group of foreign diplomats and State Department officials even set up a casual betting pool. The over/under date: Jan. 31, a day shy of Tillerson’s one-year anniversary as secretary of state.
As that date approaches, the diplomatic world is watching closely for a much-discussed “Rexit.” But expectations are being downgraded among those who thought he’d be gone by month’s end. If anything, Tillerson looks inclined to hang on to his post for the foreseeable future.
e arrived in Paris on Tuesday and will mingle with global elites at the World Economic Forum in Davos later this week. He’s already planning trips abroad months from now, is spending more time talking to the media — and, in an interview that aired earlier this month, even said he plans to stick around at least through 2018. All this despite countless media accounts of friction between him and President Donald Trump, whom he’s reportedly called a “moron.”
Diplomatic insiders say Tillerson’s staying power may due be to his stubborn personality — along with the sense of pride that comes from being a former corporate CEO. That he hasn’t been fired could also reflect the political reality for Trump that losing his secretary of state so quickly would be an embarrassment — and that replacing Tillerson would be an unwanted headache.
Anything is possible in a Trump administration that has seen numerous high-level departures, of course. And critics warn that a shadow hangs over Tillerson that deepens confusion overseas about U.S. foreign policy. Foreign diplomats see Tillerson as a weak figure because his views are often out of sync with Trump’s.
He’s also alienated many of the diplomats who work for him and are worried about his ambitious plan to downsize and restructure the State Department.
“He’s stuck in this Bermuda Triangle where he’s going to continue to wander around as the nation’s top diplomat but without real opportunities or the real support of the president at home or abroad,” said Aaron David Miller, a former adviser to several secretaries of state from both parties.
Others agree that Tillerson’s stature is crippled. A fellow Republican with extensive foreign policy experience described Tillerson’s future as: “Doomed. He will never have a close relationship with Trump, and he has ruined the building.”
And yet the former ExxonMobil CEO, who had no formal diplomatic experience until Trump tapped him for Foggy Bottom, has already survived longer than many foreign policy experts predicted. Aides say he’s unruffled, forging ahead with his steady-as-you-go approach to his job, even if it means victory on some issues takes longer to achieve.
“He has been and is focused on his job,” said Steve Goldstein, the undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs. “The secretary will remain the secretary as long as the president wants him to be there.”
Goldstein dismissed the endless rumors of Tillerson’s professional demise as the work of “people who wanted to create avenues through which there would be an opening for secretary of state.”
Among those known to view Tillerson with disdain are national security adviser H.R. McMaster and the president’s son-in-law and aide Jared Kushner. But Tillerson’s allies include Defense Secretary James Mattis, whom Trump regards highly.
When asked about his plans for 2018, Tillerson recently told CNN: “I intend to be here for the whole year.”
Beyond such standard claims — admitting you’re about to quit is an excellent way to make sure people ignore you — there are more concrete signs Tillerson intends to stick around for a while.
He is planning a trip to Africa, likely in March. The next likely destination is Asia, although the dates haven’t been set yet, Goldstein said. This week, Tillerson is making four stops in Europe, in part to confer with U.S. allies about the Iran nuclear deal.
Tillerson also has won some internal battles within the administration in recent weeks. After months of being blocked by White House aides, including former chief strategist Steve Bannon, Tillerson got his preferred candidate nominated for the role of assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.
The nominee, Susan Thornton, is a highly regarded career foreign service officer. Bannon publicly singled her out as too soft on China and bragged that he was sidelining her. Bannon was pushed out of the White House last summer, and Thornton’s nomination was announced in December.
Earlier this month, Tillerson also defeated an internal rival, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, when he persuaded the White House not to eliminate funding to a U.N. agency that helps Palestinian refugees. The funding was cut by roughly half instead.
Tillerson’s view of the North Korea standoff also seems to be prevailing: After knocking Tillerson last fall for advocating talks with North Korea over its nuclear program, the president has more recently supported such diplomatic overtures.
Still, Tillerson has suffered some big setbacks of late. He reportedly urged Trump not to formally recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but the president did so anyway. And in recent months Trump has edged closer to abandoning the Iran nuclear deal, a move Tillerson has advised against.
Diplomatic veterans question whether Tillerson can ever be an effective emissary.
“The single most important thing about a secretary of state is their ability to speak for the president. And nobody can speak for this president — he is just so unpredictable,” said Ilan Goldenberg, who worked at the State Department under President Barack Obama.
“I don’t think anyone will ever consider Tillerson a strong and truly effective secretary of state,” Goldenberg added. “It’s too late.”
There’s a growing sense in foreign policy circles that Tillerson is not the type to quit, especially when his reputation is at stake, and that if Trump wants him gone he’ll have to fire him.
But despite his famous reality TV slogan of “You’re fired!”, Trump is said to dislike firing people in real life. Other Trump aides, including Attorney General Jeff Sessions, have lingered despite Trump’s unhappiness with them.
Then there is the headache of replacing Tillerson. Haley has said she doesn’t want the job. The next reputed front-runner for the job was CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who has developed a strong rapport with Trump. But Pompeo is said to enjoy his current position and not be in any rush to jump to Foggy Bottom.
Tillerson also has backing on Capitol Hill, including from Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who would oversee future confirmation hearings for a new secretary of state.
“Sen. Corker has a very strong working relationship with Secretary Tillerson and hopes he remains at the State Department for the foreseeable future,” said Micah Johnson, an aide to Corker.
One reason Tillerson’s reputation suffered in 2017 was his refusal to publicly push back against negative leaks.
When NBC News reported in October that Tillerson had called Trump a “moron” to colleagues, Tillerson was forced to hold a news conference to pledge his fealty to the president. But he didn’t deny making the offending remark, saying he didn’t want to play into Washington games.
Goldstein, who has extensive public relations experience and joined Tillerson’s team in December, indicated that Tillerson will be more visible this year than in 2017. That includes engaging more with reporters, whom he has largely shunned.
“There were very few interviews done last year. The visibility wasn’t there. A lot of these narratives were left to fester,” Goldstein said. “That’s one of the things he’s encouraged me to try to fix.”
Tillerson made an unusually long public appearance last week, delivering a speech at Stanford University outlining U.S. policy in Syria, after which he sat for an on-stage conversation with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Tillerson also plans to engage more with State Department employees, many of whom consider him aloof and isolated.
The secretary’s unwillingness to fight Trump’s proposal to cut the State Department’s budget by a third also badly damaged his standing among civil and foreign service employees who work for him.
Tillerson held a town hall with State Department employees last month. He unveiled some elements of his redesign plan, including upgrades to the technology used in the department, that were well-received.
When asked during the gathering whether he enjoyed his job, Tillerson quipped, “I am learning to enjoy it.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/24/trump-state-department-tillerson-hangs-on-364617
PB/TK – It seems every 6 weeks there’s a report about Tillerson’s demise and yet the guy keeps hanging in there. Am I the only one who likes the guy?
