Bloomberg’s monopoly, Biden’s market crash – By Margaret Talev, Mike Allen, Alexi McCammond (Axios) / Feb 11 2020
MANCHESTER, N.H.— The political market is rendering two unambiguous trend lines: Mike Bloomberg’s TV monopoly is fueling his surge into the top tier of Democratic presidential rivals, and cash-strapped Joe Biden is crashing.
State of play: The billionaire and former New York mayor is achieving a critical mass in national polls and capturing the attention of the media, establishment Democrats (and Republicans) and the betting market. And the former vice president is dropping in those same metrics.
The big picture: Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg are the candidates to beat today in New Hampshire — but beneath the surface, the Bloomberg and Biden trends are the ones to watch.
- State polling and our conversations with voters and campaigns show Biden at risk of finishing here as low as fifth, behind Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar. That could imperil the firewall he’s always counted on from black voters in the South Carolina primary at the end of this month.
- Bloomberg, who jumped in the race late, is skipping the first four states to focus on Super Tuesday and beyond.
A Quinnipiac University poll out Monday found “Biden no longer dominates on the key question of electability,” with 27% of national Democratic or Dem-leaning voters giving Biden the best chance of beating President Trump — a steep drop from 44% just two weeks ago.
- Sanders was second with 24%. Bloomberg was third with 17% — up from 9% in late January, and ahead of Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar.
- Among black primary voters, the poll found Biden’s lead has dropped to 27% from 51% in December, with Bloomberg jumping to the second spot, at 22%, slightly ahead of Sanders.
Meanwhile, the oddsmakers see Bloomberg in second among Democrats right now, behind Sanders. Per TheLines: “He’s spending unprecedented amounts of money advertising in key states. He entered the oddmakers’ list between +1100 and +1500 and has climbed as high as +750 as of February 2020.”
Continue to article: https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-growth-biden-crash-new-hampshire-c582d6e9-0832-462d-899e-0b92edad9e2b.html
