Dems Can’t Count on More Good News – By Charlie Cook (The Cook Political Report) / Sept 22, 2022
Where this election goes next is the question on many lips this week. Can Democrats sustain the newfound momentum that has brought their midterm-election chances back to life, or will this election snap back to the more typical pattern, a referendum on the incumbent president and governing party?
While developments in individual races will matter as they always have, on a more macro-political level, what this election is about will largely determine which party will control each of the two chambers for the 118th Congress. Some of the developments that fueled the Democratic comeback over the last two months may continue to benefit them through Nov. 8, but some are unlikely to be replicated or sustained.
Talking with Republicans reveals that the abortion issue is their foremost concern going into this midterm. The Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade in June has both turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm and depressed Republican support among some independents, particularly women. Every new story of the implementation of “trigger laws” breathes more life into this issue for Democrats. Americans rarely favor radical change, and many of these restrictions meet the definition of “radical” in the minds of plenty of voters. This issue will continue to plague Republicans for the next 50 days. If Republicans have a disappointing election, their decisions around abortion will bear the most responsibility. As President Kennedy argued in his inaugural address, “In the past, those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside.” Republicans have ridden on the back of the antiabortion tiger for decades; the question is whether they will end up inside.
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