Following GOP criticism, CBO revamps insurance coverage estimates – By Robert King (washingtonexaminer.com) / Sept 21 2018
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Friday that it plans to roll out a new model for gauging insurance coverage in spring 2019, following Republican complaints the methods it currently uses are inaccurate.
The new model could have a major impact on future debates over the repeal of Obamacare.
Republicans complained that the CBO’s estimates for coverage losses under their repeal bills last year were not accurate and hurt their legislative efforts.
For instance, CBO said 23 million people would lose coverage over the next decade under the House’s first Obamacare repeal bill released in March of last year.
The White House criticized the CBO’s estimates. Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney suggested at the time that the day of the CBO had “come and gone.” He said that the scoring was “absurd.”
Mulvaney said CBO’s model assumed too many coverage losses due to the repeal of the individual mandate and that the model assumed that the mandate requiring people to get health insurance has more of an impact on people’s decisions than it actually does.
Eventually Obamacare repeal died in the Senate in July 2017 as opponents of repeal seized on the CBO’s high estimates of coverage losses.
When Republicans inserted repeal of the mandate’s penalty in tax reform, CBO estimated that 13 million people would lose coverage over the next decade. But it later downgraded that estimate to 6 million people. The mandate’s financial penalty will be zeroed out in 2019.
CBO said in the update on the new model that it will include new information on why consumers select certain types of insurance plans. The model is currently in a “development-and-testing phase,” the agency added.
The new model will look at more data to determine what would impact a consumer’s decision to keep or not get health insurance. The agency will also add new data measures that include Medicaid eligibility and the type of employer contribution offered for insurance plans.
It also seeks to estimate how much money a person will spend on healthcare.
The new model will likely be used on new legislation to repeal Obamacare next year if Republicans attempt another run at getting rid of the healthcare law.
Vice President Mike Pence recently said that Republicans could try again if they make gains in the Senate and keep the House during the midterm elections this fall.
