Inflation, recession and the 2022 midterms – By Stuart Rothenberg (Roll Call) / May 3, 2022
‘Stagflation’ bedeviled Jimmy Carter in the 1970s
ANALYSIS — With six months to go until the 2022 midterm elections, the economic indicators continue to deteriorate for Democrats. While unemployment remains low and the economy continues to grow (except for a recent hiccup that few take seriously), inflation is up dramatically, and interest rates are spiking.
The inflation rate hit 5.4 percent in June 2021, 7 percent in October, and 8.6 percent in March 2022, and that surge in inflation increasingly has economists and some in the business community worrying about inflation and a possible upcoming recession — just the combination that ended President Jimmy Carter’s electoral career prematurely.
Deutsche Bank has already changed its prediction from a “mild” recession to a more severe one. “We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote to clients recently, according to CNN.
And then there is former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. He wrote in a Washington Post op-ed piece on April 5 that “over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4 percent and unemployment has been below 5 percent, the U.S. economy has gone into recession within two years. Today, inflation is north of 6 percent and unemployment is south of 4 percent.”
CONTINUE > https://rollcall.com/2022/05/03/inflation-recession-and-the-2022-midterms%EF%BF%BC/
