Putin Ups Efforts to Intimidate Ukraine and Its Allies – By Patrick Tucker (Defense One) / April 5 2021
But experts say the mass mobilization does not suggest an imminent offensive.
Recent ceasefire violations by Russian-backed forces in Ukraine and reinforcements of regular troops on the Russian side of the border don’t mean Moscow is preparing a major advance or even seriously trying to move the line of conflict, Ukraine officials and experts said. But they do show Vladimir Putin’s continued efforts to exercise control over Kiev’s affairs and peel off its international support.
Over the last several weeks, unverified social media posts show Russian heavy equipment moving closer to the Ukranian border, including howitzers, advanced anti-aircraft missiles and radar, and even an advanced air assault division The moves prompted a Friday phone call between the U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky as well as calls between the U.S. State and Defense senior officials and their Ukranian counterparts.
The Russian government has called this mobilization part of routine exercises, an explanation that has failed to impress many observers. But that doesn’t necessarily mean a repeat of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
“This is nothing but the usual Russian tactics—to escalate tension in order to gain momentum and to dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine,” said one Ukranian senior official. “You can always expect that such a major buildup of military forces may lead to a serious escalation of hostilities provoked by Russia. But we always prefer diplomatic and political solutions.”
