Study: Insulin Access Will Decrease by 2030 as Diabetes Spreads – By Alexa Lardieri (usnews.com) / Nov 20 2018
Accessibility issues will be especially critical in the African, Asian and Oceania regions.
The amount of insulin needed to treat Type 2 diabetes is projected to increase by more than 20 percent across the globe over the next 12 years.
According to a study published Tuesday in The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, the number of adults with Type 2 diabetes is forecast to rise by more than 20 percent, from 406 million today to 511 million in 2030. At the same time, global insulin use is projected to increase to 634 million 1000-unit vials by 2030 from 526 million today.
People with the disease are going to face problems accessing their insulin. The research predicts that in 2030 around half of the 79 million adult insulin-dependant Type 2 diabetics will not have access to the necessary insulin.
Insulin is essential to people with Type 1 diabetes and some with Type 2 diabetes to decrease the risks of complications from the disease. This surge in diabetics is mostly driven by an aging population, urbanization and changes in diet and exercise.
Accessibility issues are going to impact some countries more than others, with greater concern for the African, Asian and Oceania regions. The study found that these places will have the largest unmet insulin market in 2030 if current accessibility does not improve.
The study’s co-author, Dr. Sanjay Basu of Stanford University, said today’s levels of insulin accessibility are “inadequate.”
“These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are highly inadequate compared to projected need, particularly in Africa and Asia, Basu said in a press release, “and more efforts should be devoted to overcoming this looming health challenge.”
Eliminating barriers to accessing insulin is especially critical in three countries, as half of the increase of diabetics by 2030 are projected to be in just China, with 130 million, India at 98 million and the United States at 32 million.
According to the study, worldwide use of insulin will double in 2030 from 38 million today to 79 million. Increasing accessibility in the African region sevenfold will be necessary to treat the projected 5 million diabetics, compared to just 700,000 today. Access in Asia would need to double for the 48 million people projected to have Type 2 diabetes, compared to 21 million today.
Basu said that across most of the globe, “insulin is scarce and unnecessarily difficult for patients to access” and until “governments begin initiatives to make insulin available and affordable, then its use is always going to be far from optimal.”
