Washington Post: A Law Professor War Gamed The Election And Concluded Street Violence Is Likely – By John Sexton (Hot Air) / Sept 3 2020
Today the Washington Post published a piece headlined, “What’s the worst that could happen?” A law professor at Georgetown University named Rosa Brooks decided to game out what the worst possible outcomes for the 2020 election might be and her conclusion is that we should probably expect street violence and a constitutional crisis. But as you’ll see in a moment, the methodology behind this determination is a bit suspect.
We explored the four scenarios experts consider most likely: a narrow Biden win; a big Biden win, with a decisive lead in both the electoral college and the popular vote; a Trump win with an electoral college lead but a large popular-vote loss, as in 2016; and finally, a period of extended uncertainty as we saw in the 2000 election.
With the exception of the “big Biden win” scenario, each of our exercises reached the brink of catastrophe, with massive disinformation campaigns, violence in the streets and a constitutional impasse. In two scenarios (“Trump win” and “extended uncertainty”) there was still no agreement on the winner by Inauguration Day, and no consensus on which candidate should be assumed to have the ability to issue binding commands to the military or receive the nuclear codes. In the “narrow Biden win” scenario, Trump refused to leave office and was ultimately escorted out by the Secret Service — but only after pardoning himself and his family and burning incriminating documents.
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