Why Did Polls Prepare Us for a Red Wave? Experts Weigh In on the Surprising Midterm Election Results (People)

Why Did Polls Prepare Us for a Red Wave? Experts Weigh In on the Surprising Midterm Election Results – By Amy Eskind (People) / Nov 11, 2022

Two days after the election, the majority in Congress has yet to be determined. If midterm polling had been accurate, Republicans would already be celebrating a dual-chamber sweep

The “red wave” that pollsters were predicting before the midterms turned out to be more of a red trickle. Expectations that Democrats could lose as many as 35 seats in the House of Representatives have been disproven, and if Republicans do clinch majorities in the House or Senate, it will be by a razor-thin margin.

Democrats did better than history would have predicted — the best a leading party has done in the midterms in 20 years. And that raises questions about political pollsters. Forecasts before Election Day indicated that undecided and independent voters were increasingly upset about inflation and crime — even more so than the state of democracy, voting rights and the decision to end federal protections for abortions — and that they planned to vote against the party currently in power.

Some polls were way off. Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer had a very comfortable lead against Republican challenger Tudor Dixon in the polls over the summer and into fall. Then a poll was released on Oct. 31, well into the state’s early voting period, finding the race was a virtual tie, and that half of independent voters were supporting Dixon, while less than 30 percent planned to vote for Whitmer. It was conducted by Insider Advantage, a Republican firm that has earned praise in the past for its polling methods and decently high accuracy rating from FiveThirtyEight, a group that aggregates polls.

Dixon’s campaign excitedly responded, “Dixon is surging, independents are breaking in her favor, and the momentum is on her side with one week left before Election Day.” A composite of polls found that Whitmer had a five-point lead over Dixon then, but the Republican’s campaign seemingly had proof to show otherwise.

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