IHME: Variants could lead to a ‘spring spike’ in COVID-19 deaths – By Callie Craighead (Seattle P-I) / January 29 2021
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is predicting that COVID-19 variants and loosening government restrictions may lead to a “spring spike” in cases and deaths.
The agency is predicting that the B.1.351 variant first detected in South Africa and found in the U.S. this week could drive U.S. death totals up to 654,000 by May 1. Virus resurgence in hard-hit states like California and Florida in the spring are also possible.
“What we’re seeing is sobering, and will require us to continue taking this pandemic very seriously,” said Christopher Murray, director of IHME, in a news release. “Getting vaccines out quickly is essential, and masks are still one of the best tools we have to keep transmission low and avoid the worst possible outcome. People will need to continue taking precautions even once they are vaccinated, because of the potential for more contagious variants to spread.”
In Washington, the agency is predicting that deaths could reach 5,479 by May 1 if the variants spread rapidly.
