It’s way too early to declare “mission accomplished” on the economy – By Matthew Yglesia (VOX) / June 8 2020
A terrifying forecast from the Congressional Budget Office.
A surprisingly strong May jobs report suggests that the bounce back from the Covid-19 recession started faster than most analysts were expecting. But that doesn’t mean the economy is out of the woods.
In the early stages of a recovery, promising economic signs like improved employment numbers could mean the US is on track to return to pre-recession levels of economic activity. Or those signs could just point to a partial recovery, one that stalls out at 70, 80, or even 90 percent — all of which would still indicate serious recession conditions.
Unfortunately, a partial turnaround is exactly what the Congressional Budget Office’s May macroeconomic forecast says the country should expect — followed by an extended slog toward actual recovery.
In fact, the CBO is projecting that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product won’t return to its pre-pandemic trend level until 2030. So it’s looking like a situation where unemployment remains elevated for nearly a decade, and the country as a whole ends up trillions of dollars poorer.
Continue to article: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/8/21281638/cbo-economic-forecast-recovery
